Gold resumes rebound as other markets remain jittery

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

After strong gains averaging 1.9 percent on Friday and the LME being closed yesterday, the metals are off this morning by an average of 0.7 percent, tin the only metal in the positive, it is up 0.7 percent, while the rest are down an average of one percent, led by a 1.9 percent fall in nickel to $9,865 and copper is off 0.3 percent at $5,129.50. Volume is relatively high at 7,449 lots.

Precious metals are up 0.7 percent on average this morning, compared with yesterday’s closes, led by a 1.9 percent rise in palladium and a 0.7 percent rise in gold to $1,141.50.

In Shanghai, poor PMI data has dampened sentiment further with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.7, from 50 and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 47.3, up from 47.1, but non-manufacturing PMIs were also weaker too, which is of concern as the economic plan is to rebalance the economy favouring the services sectors away from the industrial/export sectors.  The base metals are down an average of 0.4 percent, led by a 1.3 percent drop in nickel, aluminium is off 0.9 percent, tin is down 0.5 percent, while copper is up 0.2 percent at Rmb 39,360, lead is up 0.2 percent and zinc is unchanged.

Spot copper in Changjiang is up 0.4 percent at Rmb 39,350-39,500, the backwardation has narrowed to an equivalent of $21 per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is 7.67.

Precious metals are firmer with gold up 0.4 percent and silver is up 0.3 percent. Steel rebar is up 0.2 percent, iron ore is last at $56.20 and oil prices are easing this morning, of their strong rally in recent days.

Equities – yesterday weakness in Asia spread to Europe and the US where the Euro Stoxx 50 closed off 0.5 percent and the Dow was off 0.7 percent, which has flowed through to a weaker Asia today, where the Nikkei is down 3.2 percent, the Hang Seng is off 0.6 percent, the Kospi is down 1.3 percent and the CSI 300 is down 2.2 percent.

Currencies – the dollar index is edging lower again, last at 95.44, the euro is firmer at 1.1286, as is sterling at 1.5401, the aussie is flat at 0.7125, the yen is firmer at 120.48, while the rouble is at 64.75. The yuan is last at 6.4141 and the emerging market currencies we follow are largely consolidating off recent lows.

The economic agenda is busy with PMI manufacturing and services data out across Europe and the US, plus there is data on German and Italian unemployment change, UK lending, EU unemployment rate, US construction spending, IBD/TIPP economic optimism and total vehicle sales – see table below.

The base metals are still entrenched in downward trends, but recently prices have attempted to rebound. Given today’s poor Chinese PMI data the rebounds may well struggle. If the rallies do not struggle much, or if it is short-lived, then it will suggest short-covering and bargain hunting have become the driving forces, at least for a while.  Friday’s CFTC data for Comex copper showed non-commercials shorts covered 6,137 contracts, while only 490 longs liquidated; we wait to see what the LME commitment of traders report shows tomorrow. The higher oil price may well add support to the base metals as it will raise producers’ productions costs.

Gold is leading the precious metals higher with prices climbing back through the $1,140 level, suggesting another up leg is underway and the other precious metals are following to various degrees, but look well placed to push higher.

 

Overnight Performance
BST	06:33:49	+/-	+/- %	Lots
Cu	5129.5	-14	-0.3%	2435
Al	1580	-25	-1.6%	2705
Ni	9865	-195	-1.9%	989
Zn	1805.5	-6.5	-0.4%	1045
Pb	1720	-11	-0.6%	273
Sn	14145	95	0.7%	2
Steel	300	0	0.0%	Total
	Average (BM ex-Steel)		-0.7%	7449
Gold	1141.5	8.2	0.7%
Silver	14.66	0.09	0.6%
Platinum	1010.6	-5.4	-0.5%
Palladium	594	11	1.9%
	Average PM		0.7%

 

SHFE Prices 6:44 BST		Change	% Change
Cu	39360	80	0.2%
AL	11835	-110	-0.9%
Zn	14735	5	0.0%
Pb	13400	30	0.2%
Ni	76870	-980	-1.3%
Sn	100000	-470	-0.5%
Average change (base metals)	236.5		-0.4%
Rebar	1964	4	0.2%
Au	236.55	0.85	0.4%
Ag	3347	9	0.3%

 

Economic Agenda
BST	Country	Data	ACTUAL	Expected	Previous
12:50am	Japan	Capital Spending q/y	5.6%	9.0%	7.3%
2:00am	China	Manufacturing PMI	49.7	49.8	50
2:00am	China	Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.4		53.9
2:35am	Japan	Final Manufacturing PMI	51.7	51.9	51.9
2:45am	China	Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI	47.3	47.2	47.1
2:45am	China	Caixin Services PMI	51.5	53.9	53.8
8:15am	Spain	Spanish Manufacturing PMI		53.9	53.6
8:45am	Italy	Italian Manufacturing PMI		56.2	55.3
8:50am	France	French Final Manufacturing PMI		48.6	48.6
8:55am	Germany	German Unemployment Change		-3K	9K
8:55am	Germany	German Final Manufacturing PMI		53.2	53.2
9:00am	EU	Final Manufacturing PMI		52.4	52.4
9:00am	EU	Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate		12.7%	12.7%
9:00am	EU	Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate		12.5%	12.4%
9:30am	UK	Manufacturing PMI		51.9	51.9
9:30am	UK	Net Lending to Individuals m/m		3.9B	3.8B
9:30am	UK	M4 Money Supply m/m		0.2%	-0.5%
9:30am	UK	Mortgage Approvals		68K	67K
10:00am	EU	Unemployment Rate		11.1%	11.1%
2:45pm	US	Final Manufacturing PMI		52.9	52.9
3:00pm	US	ISM Manufacturing PMI		52.6	52.7
3:00pm	US	Construction Spending m/m		0.8%	0.1%
3:00pm	US	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism		47.3	46.9
3:00pm	US	ISM Manufacturing Prices		39.7	44
All Day	US	Total Vehicle Sales		17.3M	17.6M

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Gold rebounds as silver, oil contribute direction

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold futures were flat on Monday amid higher oil prices and a silver price reversal.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile exchange was last down 20 cents or 0.1 percent at $1,133.80 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $1,125.0 to $1,135.20.

In a light news day, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is attempting to cull vast oversupply by speaking directly to producers, according to reports.

Light sweet crude (WTI) oil futures on the Nymex were last up $3.29 or 7.3 percent to $48.51 per barrel, the highest mark since July 31.

Additionally, Comex silver for December delivery reversed and was last up 4.0 cents to $14.575 per ounce.

“The strength of silver relative to gold has always been a consistent leading/coincident indicator of strength in the precious metals generally,” Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, said. “That is, when silver is gaining upon gold our marked propensity is to err bullishly of metals generally.”

In US data, Chicago PMI for August was 54.4, a tad below the 54.7 figure achieved in July.

Investors are awaiting the release of the August non-farm payroll job’s report, one of the last key data figures ahead of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Turning to US equities, the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P were each down 0.6 percent, while the dollar was 0.4 percent softer at $1.1225 against the euro.

As for other precious metals, platinum for October delivery on the Nymex fell $10.40 to $1,011.30 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $600.0, up $10.45.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed today due to a bank holiday.

(Editing by Tom Jennemann)

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Lack of safe haven appeal extends into new week

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold prices were down modestly despite losses in global equity markets and a softer dollar – demonstrating investor apathy to the yellow-metal as a safe haven.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile exchange was last down $6.20 or 0.6 percent to $1,127.80 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $1,126.40 to $1,134.70.

“We are of the opinion that gold’s safe haven status has been reduced significantly,” ABN AMRO said in a note. “At times of severe crisis, gold cannot live up to its safe haven status.”

In gold specific data, money managers increased their net long positions around 33,000 to 40,600 contracts in the week of August 25, according to CFTC data.

This was attributable to short covering, but added that the upward momentum was unsustainable and net-long positions were due for a reduction, Commerzbank said. 

The markets remain quiet in the early morning US trading period as most United Kingdom businesses are closed for a late summer holiday.

Turning to the eurozone, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were down 0.8 percent and 0.9 percent respectively, while the euro was 0.4 percent stronger at $1.1234 against the dollar.

As for other precious metals, Comex for December delivery was last down 9.5 cents to $14.440 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $14.425 to $14.535.

Platinum for October delivery on the Nymex fell $20.0 to $1,001,70 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $590.65, up $1.10.

(Editing by Tom Jennemann)

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S&P cuts gold price forecasts on weaker sentiment, possible US rate hike

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has cut its forecasts for gold on weakened sentiment for the yellow metal and possible US interest rate hike, it said on Monday.

S&P has cut its gold price forecast to $1,150 per ounce for every year in 2015-2017, down from its January forecasts of $1,200 per ounce for every year in 2015-2017.

The $50 per ounce change primarily reflects the reduction in forward curve prices, which are relatively flat over the next two years, and prevailing spot market prices, it said.

Market sentiment for gold has weakened since its previous review, and prices briefly dropped below US$1,100 per ounce in July 2015 for the first time in over five years, it noted.

S&P sees the US 10-year Treasury note yields gradually increasing from 2015 to 2017 in tandem with real US GDP growth, and the significant negative correlation between gold prices and interest rates are expected to continue.

The US dollar is expected to remain strong compared with the currencies of its major trading partners, making gold more expensive in foreign-denominated terms, while the expected subdued global inflation will reduce the appeal of gold as a hedge against inflationary pressures, it noted.

“As such, we see a greater downside risk to prices. However, we acknowledge that various factors are emerging – including global currency and market volatility – which could stimulate demand for gold as a store of value and support higher pricing,” the agency said

But it also added that the strength of the US dollar should benefit most of the gold miners outside the US that have expenses in domestic currencies.

S&P also warned that it will be reviewing its ratings on companies with large exposures to gold, though it expects to take only selective ratings actions after reviewing company-specific factors, including issuers’ flexibility to adapt to lower prices by curbing capital expenditures and shareholder distributions, and their ability to maintain sufficient liquidity.

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Australia’s gold production up 4 pct in April-June – Surbiton

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Australian’s gold production rose almost three tonnes or four percent quarter-on-quarter to 72 tonnes in April-June, said Melbourne-based mining consultant Surbiton Associates said in a statement on Sunday.

“The increase in the June quarter was mostly the result of more ore being treated by some of the primary gold producers,” said Sandra Close, a Surbiton director.

Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold’s Super Pit at Kalgoorlie had lifted production by 44,000 ounces – back to its more usual level – while Newmont Mining’s Boddington and Tanami operations in Western Australia (WA) each produced 17,000 ounces more, she said.

ABM Resources’ Old Pirate mine in the Northern Territory started production and began treating ore using Tanami Gold’s Coyote treatment plant in the quarter.

Operations producing less gold included St Barbara’s Gwalia WA mine – where production fell by 20,000 ounces – and Gold Fields’ St Ives operation in WA, where output was 9,500 ounces lower.

Some of the base metal operations that produce gold as a by-product did not fare well in the April-June quarter, said Close.

Gold output at BHP Billion’s Olympic Dam in Southern Australia (SA) was down 17,000 ounces due to a mill outage which affected throughput, while output at Oz Minerals’ Prominent Hill in SA was 8,000 ounces lower as the production of copper was preferred over the treatment of gold-only ore.   

Australia’s gold output had increased by one percent to around 285 tonnes in the July 1 2014-June 30 2015 financial year.

“Despite lower gold prices in US dollar terms, the depreciation of the Australian dollar is proving a blessing for Australian gold producers,” added Close. “Although the gold price averaged $1,192 per ounce in the June quarter, the Australian dollar gold price averaged A$1,532 per ounce.

ORE SHORTAGE AT SOME PLANTS

Some plants in the gold mining industry, especially in WA, are experiencing a shortage of ore, said Close.

“Sometimes, operations experience disruptions in the supply chain and if they do not have sufficient ore stockpiles, they have to cut production until adequate supplies can be re-established,” Close said.

“However, this can provide opportunities for small miners to sell their ore to the mill owners or alternatively to negotiate toll treatment arrangements whereby their ore is treated and they receive their gold as doré bars.”

An increasing number of small companies are taking advantage of the spare capacity at some of the larger operations and creating a win-win for both parties, she added.

For instance, ore from GME Resources’ Devon mine is being toll treated through Gold Fields’ Darlot mill near Leonora in WA, and just east of Kalgoorlie, Southern Gold’s Cannon ore will be toll treated at Metals X’s nearby Jubilee plant.

To the north of Kalgoorlie, ore from Phoenix Gold’s Castle Hill project will be sold to Norton Gold Mines for treatment at Paddington, while near Coolgardie, Kidman Resources plans to use Ramelius Resources’ mothballed Burbanks plant to treat ore from its Birthday Gift mine.

Australia is the world’s second largest producer of gold after China, which is estimated to have produced around 450 tonnes of gold in calendar year 2014, according to Surbiton.

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Gold inch higher on equity volatility, possible US rate hike

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The gold price inched higher during Asian trading hours on Monday as volatilities returned to Asian stock markets and on possible US interest rate hike.

Spot gold was last at $1,134.2/1,134.5 per ounce, up $1.1 on Friday’s close. Trading ranged from $1,129.4-1,135.3 so far.

The Shanghai composite index fell 2.95 percent to 3,137.126 so far on Monday morning, after closing 4.82 percent higher at 3,232.349 on Friday.

The Chinese stock market retreated on Monday morning on word in the market that Beijing will no longer intervene to support the local equity market but instead focus on punishing those it suspected of disrupting the stock market.

Comments from Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fischer at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming over the weekend also retained the possibility of a September interest rate hike, noted ANZ bank.

“Fischer reaffirmed that the Fed remained on track for lift-off this year and that the “door remains open” to a September hike,” it said in a note on Monday morning. “A hike still looks likely by year-end. China needs watching but developments as yet don’t warrant changing tack.”

In data, the European CPI flash estimate and core CPI flash estimate are due later on Monday. Industry watchers will also look to the Chinese manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, Caixin final manufacturing PMI, Caixin services PMI to be announced on Tuesday.

In other precious metals, silver was at $14.49/14.54 per ounce, down $0.05. Platinum was at $1,005/1,010, down $9, with palladium also falling $1 to $580/585 so far on Monday morning.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was flat at 235.75 yuan per gram, while December silver was unchanged at 3,334 yuan per kilogram recently on Monday morning.

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Surging oil prices buoy precious metals

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold prices settled in positive territory for the first time since “Black Monday” as rebounding oil prices supported the precious metals.

Gold for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped $11.40 to settle at $1,134.0 per ounce. The yellow-metal fell four straight sessions before today.

Commodities and equities have recovered after plummeting on Monday – the term “Black Monday” became so popular it was trending in the US on Twitter, a social media application.

Light sweet crude (WTI) oil futures fell below $40 per barrel this week, but recovered and were last up $2.68 or 6.3 percent to $45.24 per barrel.

“Precious metals were dragged up in a typical Friday retracement buoyed by a resurgent oil market which has risen about 15 percent in two days,” Triland Metals said in a note.

Additionally, SPDR Gold trust – the world’s largest gold exchange-traded-fund – saw inflows of 1.5 tonnes yesterday, demonstrating that gold is still an attractive investment option for market participants.

In news,  investors will parse the language of various Fed officials during the multi-day Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming for any clues on the central bank’s decision whether to raise interest rates or not.

It should be noted that Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is not in attendance.

In US data today, Core PCE price index was in-line with estimates at a 0.1 percent increase, with personal income coming also matching expectations of 0.4 percent uptick.

However, personal spending rose 0.3 percent, below forecast of 0.4 percent.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment was at 91.9, missing the consensus of 93.2, while inflation came in at 2.9 percent, above the previous reading of 2.8 percent.

Turning to wider markets, UK second estimate GDP quarter-over-quarter matched consensus at 0.7 percent, while preliminary business investment quarter-over-quarter jumped 2.9 percent, above the projected 1.6 percent gain.

In US equities, the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P were down 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively, while the dollar was 0.5 percent stronger at $1.1185 against the euro.

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for September delivery increased 11.30 cents to $14.530 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $14.340 to $14.650.

Platinum for October delivery on the Nymex rose $15.60 to $1,021.60 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $588.00 per ounce, up $20.30.

(Editing by Tom Jennemann)

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Gold rebounds ahead of weekend, dollar softens

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold posted small gains on Friday as the yellow-metal moved in concert with rising equity markets. 

Gold for December settlement on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was last up $4.40 or 0.5 percent to $1,127.0 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $1,123.10 to $1,132.30.

The Dow Jones industrial average has jumped 1,000 points in the last two trading sessions, the largest two-day increase December 2008 as global equity markets continue to recover from “Black Monday”.

However, SPDR Gold trust – the world’s largest gold exchange-traded-fund – saw inflows of 1.5 tonnes yesterday, demonstrating that gold is still an attractive investment option for market participants.

Yesterday, second quarter US GDP figures were released showing the country grew 3.7 percent, above the forecast of 3.2 percent and besting the initial reading of 2.3 percent.

Despite the better than anticipated figure, the CME Group FedWatch was barely unchanged at a 24 percent probability of a rate hike in September.

“Neither the sharply rising equity markets…nor the renewed increase in Fed rate hike expectations in response to robust US GDP data have been able to put any further pressure on gold,” Commerzbank said.

In news, investors will parse the language of various Fed officials during the multi-day Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming for any clues on the central bank’s decision whether to raise interest rates or not.

It should be noted that Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen is not in attendance.

In US data today, Core PCE price index was in-line with estimates at a 0.1 percent increase, with personal income coming also matching expectations of 0.4 percent uptick.

However, personal spending rose 0.3 percent, below forecast of 0.4 percent.

Turning to wider markets, UK second estimate GDP quarter-over-quarter matched consensus at 0.7 percent, while preliminary business investment quarter-over-quarter jumped 2.9 percent, above the projected 1.6 percent gain.

Meanwhile in eurozone equities, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were last down 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent respectively, while the euro was virtually unchanged at $1.1245 against the dollar.

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for September delivery was surged 3.80 cents at $14.455 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $14.340 to $14.540.

Platinum for October delivery on the Nymex was unchanged $1,006.0 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $570.20 per ounce, up $1.60.

(Editing by Tom Jennemann)

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Far East gold premiums drop, Indian imports set to soar

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The premium for gold in India was effectively unchanged this week against the backdrop of a weaker rupee, although inventories are set to increase – there is speculation that imports will exceed 100 tonnes in August.

The premium in Ahmedabad/Mumbai was quoted at $1.00-$2.00 per ounce above the London spot price on .995 gold, traders in India told FastMarkets.

This is slightly lower than last week but a weaker rupee – at its lowest in around two years against the dollar at 67.03, not far from all-time lows at 69.22 – has nudged the local price of gold higher.

The greenback has also picked up some of the slack of recent weeks to reach around 1.13 against the euro, putting downward pressure on many emerging-market currencies.

Still, much more than 100 tonnes of gold have been imported in August so far, according to sources – dealers and fabricators are stocking up ahead of the fast-approaching festival season, which kicks off early next month.

Inventories were already high following the removal of the 80:20 legislation in November, which prompted a rise in imports – refiners capitalised on a better environment for sourcing semi-pure doré bars with average purity of 80-85 percent, according to Metals Focus.

Around 95 tonnes of gold were imported in July after 55 tonnes in June, 62 tonnes in May, 81 tonnes in April and 131 tonnes in March, with extremely high import figures also recorded towards the end of 2014.

There was already the impression that bullion dealers and jewellers across the country were collectively holding as much as 100 tonnes of gold – mostly by dealers. Some of the country’s larger banks have denied this, though.

A good monsoon season so far has also bolstered sentiment. The domestic agricultural sector accounts for as much as 60 percent of gold demand – farmers use gold as a primary store of wealth because they have limited access to the formal banking system.

In Dubai, many dealers had been moving material out of the Emirates to meet the uptick in demand from India, resulting in a rare shortage of metal in one of the region’s largest consumers.

But the premium has normalised while dealers restock, with local sources pegging the local price on four-nines gold at around $0.50 over the London spot price and slightly less on .995 metal.

The premium for gold in China has also stabilised after a spike in volatility in the previous weeks. The premium in Shanghai remains at $2-3 over the London spot price, with demand said to have improved following interventions from the Chinese central bank.

After the PBoC’s interest rate and RRR cuts earlier this week, there is increased pressure on the onshore yuan, which is playing into the onshore gold market’s hands, traders said.

Still, despite huge liquidations in the SCI, there is little to suggest a shift in investors to gold from equities during this period of uncertainty.

“Overall demand for gold is still weak, making the traditional safe-haven asset less attractive, even against the backdrop of China stock markets turmoil,” one analyst in China said. “The PBoC has sent a signal that the yuan won’t be devalued significantly in the near future, helping calm the market.”

Withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults – a useful barometer but not necessarily a direct indication for demand – suggest that buying has been higher since the start of July.

Vault withdrawals exceeded 250 tonnes in July, the highest total in years. August has been steadier – for the week ending August 14, some 65 tonnes were withdrawn, slightly higher than the 56 tonnes in the previous week.

Inventories are reportedly high – according to data from the Census and Statistic Department of the Hong Kong government, China imported a net 55 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong in July, up nearly 50 percent on June.  

Demand in Hong Kong has slowed. Swiss dealers are holding out for premiums around $1 on fresh bars, though Japanese bars are available at around 70 cents.

In Singapore, the premium has also dropped in line with the general calming of Far East premiums. Sources pegged the premium at around $1-1.30 on Swiss bars.

In Tokyo, the discount has widened again despite it looking likely to hit parity towards the start of August. Traders maintain that demand has been slightly better in line with the weaker yen but the discount has now widened to $0.50-0.70 on Japanese LBMA-brand kilobars.

In Turkey, the premium has disappeared after recently hitting its strongest this year at $3. The lira hit a fresh all-time low earlier this week against the dollar at 3.0003, pressuring the local market – the premium on the favoured LBMA .995 1kg bar is now around a discount of $1.

Turkish imports of gold jumped in July to their highest since November 2014 at 14 tonnes, though much of Turkey’s supply comes from the secondary market and the country’s small mining industry.

In Bangkok the premium is marginally higher at around $1-1.50 on 96.5-percent purity bars although traders note that there are simply more sellers than buyers for now.

(Additional reporting by Meimei Qin, editing by Mark Shaw)

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Gold stable above $1,120/oz, volatility eases as weekend nears

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold was steady in subdued trading on Friday morning, mostly driven once more by expectations about the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate rise in more than a decade.

The spot gold price was last at $1,127/1,127.40 per ounce, up $1 on Thursday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,124.50 to $1,133.10 so far.

Overnight, US equities closed more than two percent higher. Better-than-expected US data on Thursday helped to calm sentiment after what has been a volatile week for global markets.

The US preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter jumped 3.7 percent – beating the forecast of 3.2 percent and above the previous reading of 2.3 percent – while the preliminary GDP price index quarter-over-quarter was at 2.1 percent, above the estimate of two percent.

And US weekly initial jobless claims stood at 271,000, below estimates of 275,000 and under the psychological 300,000 mark.

“Gold has not done much over the past few days and therefore its short-term trajectory is somewhat up in the air at this point,” INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said.

“However, we think prices will likely head lower over the next few days, since gold is not only selling off on bearish news, but more importantly, it does not seem to be pushing higher on bullish news, such as when equities are under pressure,” Meir added.

Today, the Shanghai composite index closed at 3,232.349, up 4.82 percent and building on Thursday’s uptick – still, they ended the week down more than eight percent.

US data today includes goods trade balance, the core PCE price index, personal spending, personal income, revised UoM consumer sentiment and revised UoM inflation expectations are due.

“Headlines out of Jackson Hole, as the symposium unfolds, could also create some price volatility,” UBS analysts noted.

Market participants will parse the language of various Fed officials during the multi-day Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming for any clues on the central bank’s decision whether to raise interest rates or not.

“Gold will remain subdued until commodities have snuffed out their lows and inflation is back on the cards; it appears now we may be waiting a little longer than we initially anticipated,” broker Triland said.

As for the other precious metals, silver was last at $14.40/14.45 per ounce, down 10 cents. Platinum drifted $6 lower to $998/1,003 and palladium at $563/568 was $7 softer.

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

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Palladium and silver prices lead the rebound, gold price firmer too

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The relief rally led to a strong rebound in base metals yesterday with the complex closing up an average of 3.1 percent, led by a 5.2 percent gain in nickel and four percent gains in copper and zinc. Palladium, led the precious metals higher with a 7.1 percent gain, silver prices were up 2.8 percent, platinum was up 2.3 percent, while gold prices were up just 0.2 percent at $1,126.

This morning the base metals are up 0.4 percent on average, with zinc up 1.1 percent at $1,770, while copper is off 0.3 percent at $5,109, while the rest are between little changed and up 0.5 percent. Volume has been high at 7,158 lots and although prices are up an average of 0.4 percent at the day’s highs average gains were 0.9 percent.

Palladium remains in the driving seat with a 0.9 percent gain to $575.10, gold is up 0.4 percent at $1,130.60, while the rest are little changed. Platinum’s discount to platinum is at $125.

In Shanghai, all the base metals are in positive territory with average gains of 1.5 percent, led by a 3.8 percent rise in nickel, zinc is up 1.6 percent and copper is up 1.5 percent at Rmb 39,250, aluminium is up 0.4 percent and lead and tin are up 0.9 percent. Spot copper in Changjiang is up 1.4 percent at Rmb 39,450-39,600, the backwardation with the futures is at an equivalent of $55 per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb window remains open, although the ratio has slipped to 7.69.

In other metals in Shanghai, silver is up 2.2 percent, gold is up 0.6 percent, as is steel rebar, while iron ore is firmer at $53.90.

Equities – after the strength of Asian markets yesterday, Europe and US equities rebounded strongly with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 3.5 percent and the Dow was up 2.3 percent and that has flowed through to Asia for a second day of gains. The Nikkei is up three percent, the Hang Seng is up 0.5 percent, the CSI is up 1.3 percent and the Kospi is up 1.5 percent.

Currencies – the dollar index is consolidating at 95.68, the euro is giving back some of its recent gains, last at 1.1255, the aussie is firmer at 0.7170, the yen is weaker at 121.09, sterling is at 1.5435 and the rouble is firmer at 65.65. The yuan is at 6.4566, the rupiah, rupee, real and rand are all consolidating off recent lows.

The economic agenda is busy, data already out in Japan showed a mixed picture, with household spending falling less than previously and retail sales were stronger than expected at 1.6 percent, while CPI readings were flat to slightly weaker. Later we get CPI data out in Germany and Spain, UK GDP and US data includes goods trade balance, personal income, spending and prices, University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations – see table below for more details.

Relief rebounds are underway in the base metals and we wait to see the extent of short-covering that emerges. Given some extended gross short positions amongst money managers/funds on the LME and Comex, there is potential for considerable profit-taking by shorts that could drive prices higher and rebounding prices may also prompt some bargain hunting. So for now we would not be surprised for the rallies to go further, but with the fundamentals generally bearish we would see any strength as a counter trend move.

The industrial precious metals are likely to see prices rebound further as many have become oversold and a rising tide might lift gold too, but generally we would expect dips in gold to be supported.

 

Overnight Performance
BST	06:14:26	+/-	+/- %	Lots
Cu	5109	-15	-0.3%	4325
Al	1564	7	0.4%	715
Ni	10035	5	0.0%	963
Zn	1770	20	1.1%	992
Pb	1686	8.5	0.5%	153
Sn	13945	45	0.3%	10
Steel	300	0	0.0%	Total
	Average (BM ex-Steel)		0.4%	7158
Gold	1130.6	4.6	0.4%
Silver	14.5	0	0.0%
Platinum	1004.7	0.7	0.1%
Palladium	575.1	5.1	0.9%
	Average PM		0.3%

 

SHFE Prices 6:15 BST		Change	% Change
Cu	39250	570	1.5%
AL	11915	50	0.4%
Zn	14635	235	1.6%
Pb	13380	125	0.9%
Ni	77990	2840	3.8%
Sn	100630	860	0.9%
Average change (base metals)	236.5		1.5%
Rebar	1970	12	0.6%
Au	235.4	1.4	0.6%
Ag	3336	73	2.2%

 

Economic Agenda
BST	Country	Data	ACTUAL	Expected	Previous
12:30am	Japan	Household Spending y/y	-0.2%	0.9%	-2.0%
12:30am	Japan	Tokyo Core CPI y/y	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
12:30am	Japan	National Core CPI y/y	0.0%	-0.2%	0.1%
12:30am	Japan	Unemployment Rate	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%
12:50am	Japan	Retail Sales y/y	1.6%	1.1%	1.0%
All Day	Germany	German Prelim CPI m/m		-0.1%	0.2%
8:00am	Spain	Spanish Flash CPI y/y		-0.1%	0.1%
9:30am	UK	Second Estimate GDP q/q		0.7%	0.7%
9:30am	UK	Prelim Business Investment q/q		1.6%	2.0%
9:30am	UK	Index of Services 3m/3m		0.7%	0.4%
Tentative	Italy	Italian 10-y Bond Auction			1.83|1.4
1:30pm	US	Goods Trade Balance			-62.3B
1:30pm	US	Core PCE Price Index m/m		0.1%	0.1%
1:30pm	US	Personal Spending m/m		0.4%	0.2%
1:30pm	US	Personal Income m/m		0.4%	0.4%
3:00pm	US	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment		93.2	92.9
3:00pm	US	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations			2.8%
Day 2	ALL	Jackson Hole Symposium

The post Palladium and silver prices lead the rebound, gold price firmer too appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

Gold edges higher but risk remains as market turmoil subsides

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The gold price rose during Asian trading hours on Friday, paring back some of the losses made overnight.

Spot gold was last at $1,130.2/1,130.5 per ounce, up $4.5 on Friday’s close. Trading ranged from $1,124.5-1,131.2 so far.

The spot price had dipped briefly below $1,120 on Thursday. Interest in the yellow metal has waned as market sentiment improved on stabilising global equity markets and stronger US data.

“Gold remains a sell on rallies with risk back on the table,” said MKS Group in a Friday morning note.

The Chinese stock market continued its climb on Friday morning. The Shanghai composite index rose 1.66 percent to 3,134.669 so far after closing at 3,083.591 on Thursday, which was up 5.35 percent and its first gain in six days.

Overnight US equities had closed more than two percent higher in a second consecutive day on Thursday. Market participants also took heart from encouraging US data released on Thursday.

The US preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter jumped 3.7 percent – beating the forecast of 3.2 percent and above the previous reading of 2.3 percent – while the preliminary GDP price index quarter-over-quarter was at 2.1 percent, above the estimate of two percent. The US weekly initial jobless claims stood at 271,000, below estimates of 275,000 and under the psychological 300,000 mark.

Market participants will look to the happenings at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming starting later on Friday.  The US goods trade balance, core PCE price index and personal spending data, and the EU’s German preliminary CPI and Spanish flash CPI are due on Friday.

In other precious metals, silver was at $14.5/14.55 per ounce, up $0.02. Platinum was at $1,008/1,013, up $6, with palladium also increased $9 to $577/582 so far on Friday morning.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was flat at 235.05 yuan per gram, while December silver was unchanged at 3,334 yuan per kilogram recently on Friday morning.

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Gold dips as safe haven appeal absent

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold prices declined for the fourth straight session as equity markets and the US dollar continues to recover from “Black Monday”.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.0 to close at $1,122.60 per ounce. Trade ranged from $1,117.0 to $1,128.50.

Gold prices rallied from multi-year lows to end last week as fears over a major slowdown in China finally crested.

US equities and dollar correspondly sunk to begin the week, aptly deemed “Black Monday” as the contagion in Asia spooked investors in the world’s largest economy.

Capital fled from all assets except US treasuries, demonstrating the lack of safe haven for gold – the yellow-metal is seen as a popular asset during major price fluctuations. 

“Overall, from a precious perspective, I believe the rally we have seen recently was also overdone,” David Govett at Marex Spectron said. “With the market as short as it was, the move was somewhat inevitable and this fueled the rally rather than the concept of gold being a safe haven during times of turmoil.”

US preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter for the second quarter jumped 3.7 percent, beating the forecast of 3.2 percent and above the previous reading of 2.3 percent.

Additionally, the preliminary GDP price index quarter-over-quarter was at 2.1 percent, above the estimate of two percent, while weekly initial jobless claims stood at 271,000, below estimates of 275,000 and under the psychological 300,000 mark.

“Good GDP data and better initial jobless claims bode well… and should help restore some confidence” in the US economy, FastMarkets head of research William Adams said.

US equities and the dollar responded favourably with the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P last up 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. The dollar was 0.6 percent stronger at $1.1251 against the euro.

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for September delivery was surged 31.4 cents at $14.355 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $14.050 to $14.560.

Platinum for October delivery on the Nymex rose $16.90 to $997.10 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $564.20 per ounce, up $34.55.

(Editing by Tom Jennemann)

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Gold pressured lower by forecast-beating US economic growth

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold prices slipped in the US on Thursday morning on the release of data that showed the country’s economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously estimated, spurring purchasing of the dollar.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division on the New York Mercantile Exchange was last down $3.50 or 0.3 percent at $1,121.10 per ounce. Prices were unchanged before the release of the US data.

The data included preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter, which jumped 3.7 percent, beating the forecast of 3.2 percent and above the previous reading of 2.3 percent.

Additionally, the preliminary GDP price index quarter-over-quarter was at 2.1 percent, above the estimate of two percent, while weekly initial jobless claims stood at 271,000, below estimates of 275,000 and under the psychological 300,000 mark.

The dollar was 0.6 percent stronger at 1.1243 against the euro.

“Good GDP data and better initial jobless claims bode well… and should help restore some confidence” in the US economy, FastMarkets head of research William Adams said.

Second-quarter GDP readings and weekly unemployment claims are two of the key figures ahead of September’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Now market participants will parse the language of various Fed officials during the multi-day Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming.

But Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is not scheduled to attend, therefore making the US jobs report on September 7 the last major data release that will be factored into the central bank’s decision whether to raise interest rates or not.

Interest rates have been at near zero levels since December 2008 and the Fed has not increased rates in more than a decade.

The CME Group FedWatch – a tool to gauge market expectations of a rate rise – at 24 percent was unchanged from yesterday. The probability has fluctuated between zero and 50 percent the past month.

Turning to wider markets, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were up 3.2 percent and 3.1 percent respectively.

In data already released in the eurozone, M3 money supply and private loans both came better than expected at 5.3 percent and 0.9 percent respectively but German import prices undershot at -0.7 percent.

US pending home sales and national gas storage numbers are slated for release later today.

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for September delivery was last up 8.4 cents at $14.125 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $14.050 to $14.250.

Platinum for October delivery on the Nymex rose $11.80 to $992.0 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $548.05, up $18.40.

 

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

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Gold price steadies while stocks recover, US data in focus

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold steadied on Thursday morning after dropping to its lowest in a week in the previous session, with investors switching their attention from the turmoil in Chinese markets to the timing of a US interest rate rise.

The spot gold price was last at $1,128.4/1,128.8 per ounce, up $5.20 on Wednesday’s close. Trade has ranged narrowly from $1,123.20 to $1,129.20 so far.

Comments by New York Federal Reserve president William Dudley on Wednesday that a case for a rate rise increase in September is “less compelling”, given international developments and volatility in financial markets, provided some support.

“Turmoil across global markets did little to bring people back to gold as investors ignored the metal’s haven appeal and focused on the prospect of higher US interest rates,” ANZ said in a note.

In equities, shares in Asia and Europe rose today after the biggest gain in US stocks in more than four years on Wednesday. Ending five consecutive days of falls, the Shanghai composite index closed with gains of 2.13 percent at 2,989.693 – having earlier topped 3,000.

Currencies are correcting too, with the dollar index rallying – it was last at 95.35. Monday’s low was 92.56.

“With other markets getting some lift and with the dollar rebounding, gold may struggle for a while but as we expect only a short counter-trend up move in other markets. So the dip in gold may well find support because there may be more market anguish ahead,” FastMarkets William Adams’ said.

“The more industrial precious metals are likely to get some lift along with the base metals,” he added.

Investors will be eyeing today’s US preliminary GDP – forecast at 3.2 percent, up from the previous 2.3 percent – and jobless claims – estimated at 275,000 from last reading of 277,000 – for further clues of the timing of the Fed’s first rise in interest rates from near-zero levels.

Pending home sales and national gas storage numbers are also scheduled for release later this afternoon. Today is also the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium when central bankers and leading market players meet – Fed chair Janet Yellen is not attending this year.

In data already released in the eurozone, M3 money supply and private loans both came better than expected at 5.3 percent and 0.9 percent respectively but German import prices undershot at -0.7 percent.

In the other precious metals, silver was last at $14.25/14.30 per ounce, up 14 cents – it dipped below $14 in the previous session. Platinum at $994/999 climbed $13 and palladium at $545/550 was also up $13.

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

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Gold prices consolidate as broader markets rebound

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Yesterday the base metals gave back most of Tuesday’s gains, closing down an average of 2.1 percent with zinc falling the most with a 3.2 percent to drop to $1,682, tin was down 2.8 percent to $13,700 and copper was off 2.7 percent at $4,920. Silver led most of the precious metals lower with a 3.9 percent drop to $14.11, gold closed down 1.7 percent at $1,123.50, palladium was down 0.7 percent and platinum bucked the trend with a 0.4 percent rise.

This morning the base metals are up an average of one percent with gains of between 0.7 percent for tin and aluminium; lead and zinc are both up 0.9 percent, nickel is up 1.2 percent and copper leads with a 1.5 percent rise to $4,994.50. Volume remains higher than average with 6,710 lots traded.

Precious metals are up an average of 0.7 percent with platinum up 0.9 percent, palladium is up 0.8 percent, silver is up 0.7 percent and gold is up 0.3 percent at $1,127. Platinum’s discount to gold is $137.10.

In Shanghai, the base metals are mixed with tin off 1.3 percent, copper is down 1.1 percent at Rmb 38,810, zinc is off 0.6 percent and aluminium is off 0.4 percent, lead is up 0.1 percent and nickel is up 0.5 percent. Since peaking in May, October nickel has dropped 36 percent from Rmb 111,810 to Rmb 71,180.

Spot copper in Changjiang, is off 0.9 percent at Rmb 38,900-39,050, the backwardation with the futures is at an equivalent of $37 per tonne, while the LME/Shanghai copper arb window remains open, with the ratio at 7.9 for the September contract.

Gold and silver in Shanghai are weaker with silver off three percent and gold off 1.1 percent – in other metals, steel rebar up 0.7 percent and iron ore prices are steady at $53.70.

Equities were mixed yesterday with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 1.5 percent, but the mood changed later in the day with the Dow ending the day with a 3.95 percent rise. This has flowed through to Asian markets where the Nikkei is up 0.9 percent, the Hang Seng is up 2.2 percent, the Kospi is up one percent, the ASX 200 is up 1.2 percent and the CSI 300 is up two percent. So for now it seems equities are getting a respite and that may reduce the fear factor in the metals.

Currencies are correcting too with the dollar index rallying, last at 95.08, Monday’s low was 92.56. The euro, sterling and yen are weaker, last at 1.1346, 1.5500, 119.90 respectively, the aussie is treading water at 0.7113, while the weaker currencies of late are firmer with the rouble at 68.65, after a low of 71.62, and the real, rupee, rupiah and rand are off recent lows, although not by much. The yuan, however, remains volatile, last at 6.4793. Given, how oversold the metals have become, we doubt the firmer dollar will get in the way of a rally, should one get going.

Data out today includes German import prices, UK house prices, EU money supply and private loans, while US data includes preliminary GDP, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, national gas storage and it is the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium, when central bankers and leading market players put their heads together – Fed Chair Janet Yellen is apparently not attending this year.

So with the metals starting higher as Europe opens, another attempt to rebound is underway, in the recent past these have faltered fairly quickly – the last time copper had two consecutive up candles was July 8-9. That said, with US equities up yesterday and that flowing through to Asia this morning and with European pre-market equities looking stronger too, it may be that a relief rally does get going in the industrial metals and then it will be a question of whether that prompts more short-covering. Of late, although there has been some short-covering, it has tended to be matched by long liquidation.

With other markets getting some lift and with the dollar rebounding, gold may struggle for a while, but as we expect only a short counter trend up move in other markets, so the dip in gold may well find support as there may be more market anguish ahead. The more industrial precious metals are likely to get some loft along with the base metals.

 

Overnight Performance
BST	06:14:20	+/-	+/- %	Lots
Cu	4994.5	74.5	1.5%	3859
Al	1542.5	10.5	0.7%	527
Ni	9650	115	1.2%	740
Zn	1697.5	15.5	0.9%	1390
Pb	1659	14	0.9%	178
Sn	13800	100	0.7%	16
Steel	300	0	0.0%	Total
	Average (BM ex-Steel)		1.0%	6710
Gold	1127	3.5	0.3%
Silver	14.21	0.1	0.7%
Platinum	989.9	8.9	0.9%
Palladium	536.4	4.4	0.8%
	Average PM		0.7%

 

SHFE Prices 6:15 BST		Change	% Change
Cu	38810	-430	-1.1%
AL	11855	-45	-0.4%
Zn	14415	-85	-0.6%
Pb	13310	10	0.1%
Ni	75600	410	0.5%
Sn	99900	-1270	-1.3%
Average change (base metals)	236.5		-0.4%
Rebar	1967	14	0.7%
Au	234.6	-2.6	-1.1%
Ag	3266	-100	-3.0%

 

Economic Agenda
BST	Country	Data	ACTUAL	Expected	Previous
7:00am	Germany	German Import Prices m/m		-0.3%	-0.5%
7:00am	UK	Nationwide HPI m/m		0.4%	0.4%
9:00am	EU	M3 Money Supply y/y		4.9%	5.0%
9:00am	EU	Private Loans y/y		0.7%	0.6%
1:30pm	US	Prelim GDP q/q		3.2%	2.3%
1:30pm	US	Unemployment Claims		275K	277K
1:30pm	US	Prelim GDP Price Index q/q		2.0%	2.0%
3:00pm	US	Pending Home Sales m/m		1.3%	-1.8%
3:30pm	US	Natural Gas Storage		59B	53B
Day 1	ALL	Jackson Hole Symposium

The post Gold prices consolidate as broader markets rebound appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

Gold up slightly after overnight drop

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The gold price rose slightly during Asian trading hours on Thursday, after falling to a one-week low overnight.

Spot gold was last at $1,127.2/1,127.5 per ounce, up $3.8 on Wednesday’s close. Trading ranged from $1,123.2-1,129.2 so far.

Earlier on, the precious complex had come under heavy selling pressure on position squaring, strong US dollar and the US equity markets soaring, said MKS Group in a Thursday morning note.

Stronger US data released on Wednesday also raised prospects of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

“Turmoil across global markets did little to bring people back to gold as investors ignored the metal’s haven appeal and focused on the prospect of higher US interest rates. A recent survey suggests traders are pricing in an almost 50 percent chance that the Fed will start tightening monetary policy by the end of the year,” noted ANZ Research on Thursday morning.

In equities, the Shanghai composite index has so far risen by 1.04 percent to 2,957.863 – having topped 3,000 earlier on – on Thursday morning on support from the US equity rebound and China’s latest stimulus measure announcement.

The People’s Bank of China said on late Wednesday that it will inject 140 billion yuan ($21.80 billion) into the financial system through a short-term liquidity adjustment operation. This followed its Tuesday’s announcement of a benchmark lending rate cut by 25 basis points to 4.6 percent – the fifth reduction since November – with effect from Wednesday.

In data, the preliminary GDP, unemployment claims and pending home sales from the US are due to be released later today. 

In other precious metals, silver was at $14.17/14.22 per ounce, up $0.08. Platinum was at $990/995, up $12, with palladium also rising $7 to $536/541 so far on Thursday morning.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold for December delivery was unchanged at 235.1 yuan per gram, while December silver was flat at 3,269 yuan per kilogram recently on Thursday morning.

The post Gold up slightly after overnight drop appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

Gold slips as investors prefer equities, dollar

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold prices regressed for the second straight day as investors returned capital into US equities and the dollar.

Gold for December delivery on the Comex division on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined $13.70 to settle at $1,124.60 per ounce. Trade ranged from $1,116.90 to $1,146.0.

“The rally we have seen recently was overdone. With the market as short as it was the move was somewhat inevitable and this fuelled the rally rather than the concept of gold being a safe haven during times of turmoil,” Marex Spectron noted. 

In news, New York Federal Reserve president William Dudley said today that a September hike is now “less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago” given the deteriorating conditions outside of the United States. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in an intense debate over the exact timing of increasing the federal funds rate.

After lingering at near zero levels since December 2008, the FOMC is trying to juggle persistently low inflation and the growing Chinese contagion, which has leaked into US equity markets.

The Federal Reserve hasn’t increased interest rates in over a decade, but Chairwoman Janet Yellen has expressed a desire to normalise rates in 2015.

The CME Group FedWatch – a tool to gauge market expectations of a rate hike – stood at 24 percent and has fluctuated between zero and fifty the past month.

“With financial markets now attaching a lower probability to a Fed rate hike this year, the market impact will be more substantial if the Fed decides to hike as we still expect,” ABN AMRO said in a report.”Then, financial markets will adjust upwards their interest hiking expectations for this year and next year.”

“This will spur the US dollar and result in lower gold and other precious metal prices,” the report added.

In US equities, the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P were last up 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent, while the dollar was was 1.3 percent stronger at $1.1365 against the euro.

Key data points the Fed and market participants will be watching is tomorrow’s US weekly unemployment claims, along with the Jackson Hole Symposium and the non-farm US payroll data released on September 7.

In strong US data today, durable goods orders month-over-month was up 0.6 percent, above the forecast of -0.4 percent and the revised figure was changed to 3.4 percent.

Core durable goods orders month-over-month jumped two percent, smashing expectations of a 0.3 percent uptick.

Meanwhile, inflows into gold ETFs continued – holdings in the funds tracked by FastMarkets have increased to 1,536.95 tonnes.

As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for September delivery was last down 54.5 cents at $14.065 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $13.910 to $14.705.

Platinum for October delivery on the Nymex rose $0.70 to $977.40 per ounce, while the most-actively traded palladium contract was at $527.60 per ounce, down $12.50.

(Editing by Tom Jennemann)

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