The base metals put in a strong performance on Friday on the back of a weaker dollar and as weakness earlier in the week had generally run into scale down buying. At the close on Friday the base metals were up an average of 2.1 percent led by a 4.2 percent rise in nickel to $13,255, a 2.2 percent rise in aluminium to $1,821.50 and a two percent rise in lead to $2,073.50.
Precious metals failed to respond to the weaker dollar with prices closing down an average of 0.8 percent, with platinum off 1.3 percent and gold off 1.1 percent at $1,179.90. Breach of support on gold at $1,184 had damaged the chart picture.
This morning the base metals have added to Friday’s gains and are up a further 0.6 percent on average, led by a 1.1 percent rise in nickel, tin is up 0.7 percent at $15,860, while the rest are up between 0.4 and 0.6 percent with copper at $6,061. So far this morning volume has been average with 4,338 lots traded.
Precious metals are up 0.6 percent, led by a 1.1 percent rise in silver to $15.88, while gold lags behind with a 0.3 percent rise to $1,183.50.
In Shanghai, the June contracts are up 2.3 percent led by a five percent rise in nickel to 101,490, a 2.7 percent rise in tin, a 2.3 percent rise in lead, a 1.6 percent rise in zinc, 1.3 percent in copper to Rmb 43,840 and a 0.9 percent rise in aluminium.
Spot copper in Changjiang climbed 1.1 percent to Rmb 44,000-44,200, the spread with the futures in around an equivalent of some $58 per tonne backwardation and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 1 to 7.23.
Equities – they continued to push higher on Friday with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4 percent, the Dow up 0.1 percent and the Nasdaq set a higher record high. In Asia this morning, the story is more mixed with the Nikkei off 0.3 percent, the Hang Seng is up 1.4 percent, the CSI 300 is up 1.6 percent and the Kospi is off 0.1 percent.
Currencies – the dollar is weaker with the dollar index at 96.89, the question is whether it will break support that runs between 96.69 to 96.16. If it does then that could provide extra support to the metals, especially gold. The euro is firmer at 1.0869 – somewhat surprising given the tensions over Greece, sterling is strong at 1.5172, again surprising ahead of the election and other currencies are stronger too with the yen is at 118.94, the aussie at 0.7823, the rouble at 50.01 and the yuan at 6.2013. Other emerging currencies are mixed with the rupee weaker at 63.60, the rupiah at 12,947, while the real and rand are firmer at 2.9483 and 12.0942, respectively. So for the most part, concerted strength in currencies do suggest potential for further dollar weakness.
The economic agenda is light with German import prices, UK CBI industrial order expectations and US flash services PMI – see table below.
The base metals are looking stronger as they have attracted follow through strength from Friday’s performance. The strong rallies in lead and zinc continue to push through potential resistance levels, the rebounds in nickel and tin are gaining momentum and recent weakness in copper and aluminium has been turned round with aluminium now challenging resistance. All in all, this looks constructive for the near term outlook.
The precious metals are on a back foot, especially silver and platinum, but the weaker dollar we would have thought should lend support. That said, with equities strong investors’ appetite remains low, with short selling still being seen in silver, although short-covering was evident in gold last week. For now we would look for scale down support and for dollar weakness to become a bullish factor should the dollar break support.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 06:41 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 6061 | 35.5 | 0.6% | 1775 |
| Al | 1828 | 6.5 | 0.4% | 583 |
| Ni | 13400 | 145 | 1.1% | 1185 |
| Zn | 2256 | 11 | 0.5% | 659 |
| Pb | 2084 | 10.5 | 0.5% | 121 |
| Sn | 15860 | 110 | 0.7% | 15 |
| Steel | 395 | 0 | 0.0% | Total |
| Average (BM ex-Steel) | 0.6% | 4,338 | ||
| Gold | 1183.5 | 3.6 | 0.3% | |
| Silver | 15.88 | 0.17 | 1.1% | |
| Platinum | 1124.1 | 5.1 | 0.5% | |
| Palladium | 775.4 | 5.4 | 0.7% | |
| Average PM | 0.6% | |||
| SHFE prices 06:53 BST | Change | % Change | |
| Cu | 43840 | 570 | 1.3% |
| AL | 13330 | 125 | 0.9% |
| Zn | 16775 | 260 | 1.6% |
| Pb | 13775 | 315 | 2.3% |
| Ni | 101490 | 4830 | 5.0% |
| Sn | 116460 | 3030 | 2.7% |
| Average change (base metals) | 2.3% | ||
| Rebar | 2295 | 4 | 0.2% |
| Au | 236.6 | -1.65 | -0.7% |
| Ag | 3469 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | ACTUAL | Expected | Previous |
| 7:00am | Germany | German Import Prices m/m | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 11:00am | UK | CBI Industrial Order Expectations | 4 | 0 | |
| 2:45pm | US | Flash Services PMI | 59.1 | 59.2 |
The post Base metals see follow through strength,weaker dollar helping appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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