Gold prices fell in early morning US trading period ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and a slew of US data.
Gold for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was last down $4.30 at $1,209.60 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $1,1203.90 to $1,212.5.
“The gold price has not yet managed to rise significantly above the $1,200 per troy ounce mark. It is also continuing to hover around the 1,100 euros per troy ounce level in euro terms,” Commerzbank said. “Participants on the gold market will doubtless be watching this evening’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve with great interest, hoping for signs of when the Fed might begin its interest rate hikes.”
The Federal Open Market Committee will finish its two-day meeting Today and, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch, there is a zero-percent chance that the central bank will adjust rates. This should not be surprising given some high-profile headline misses recently, such as the US gaining only 126,000 jobs in March and consumer confidence coming in under forecast.
The odds are not much better for June, where the futures market only indicates a 2.14 percent chance of rates rising to 0.5 percent from 0-0.25 percent currently, according to CME data.
The CME Group FedWatch is based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, which have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in US monetary policy.
September and October could be interesting – FedWatch puts the implied probability for a rate increase in those two months at 26 percent 43 percent respectively.
In data, advance GDP and advance GDP prince index for March came in under their forecast. Advance GDP rose 0.2 percent, missing the forecast of 1.0 percent, while Advance GDP price index declined 0.1 percent, while analysts projected 0.5 percent increase.
Meanwhile in the Eurozone, M3 Money supplies year-over-year beat the projection at 4.6, with a forecast of 4.3. Private loans year-over-year met projections at 0.1. In European equities, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 were both 1.2 and 1.5 percent respectively.
As for the other precious metals, Comex silver for May delivery was down one cent at $16.58 per ounce. Trade has ranged from $16.385 to $16.635. Platinum for June delivery on the Nymex fell $1.20 to $1,157.40, while the most actively traded palladium contract was at $777.0, up $6.75.
Light sweet crude (WTI) futures fell five cents or 0.1 percent at $57.01 per barrel in the most active contrac,t while the euro was 0.7 percent stronger against the dollar at 1.1054.
(Editing by Tom Jennemann)
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