Thursday, 21 May 2015

Gold price consolidates after recent downward correction

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The base metals for the most part were stronger yesterday with lead leading the way with a 2.2 percent rise to $1,977.50, copper was up 0.8 percent at $6,264.50 and zinc was little changed – aluminium and nickel were off around 0.3 percent, while tin was off 0.9 percent.

Precious metals were mixed yesterday with the gold price and platinum price off around 0.3 percent to $1,206 and $1,152 respectively, silver was up 0.3 percent at $17.14 and palladium was up 0.6 percent at $779.

This morning the  base metals are up an average of 0.2 percent, with lead up 0.8 percent at $1,993, aluminium is up 0.4 percent, zinc is up 0.2 percent, copper is unchanged, while nickel is off 0.3 percent at $12,985. Volume remains light with 3,012 lots traded.

Precious metals are little changed, with platinum up 0.3 percent at $1,155.10, while the others are either side of unchanged with the gold price at $1,207.70.

In Shanghai, the July base metals are mixed with nickel leading on the downside with a 1.4 percent drop, tin is down 0.4 percent and lead is up 1.3 percent, aluminium is up 0.1 percent and zinc and copper are up 0.3 percent with the latter at Rmb 45,100.

Spot copper in Changjiang is unchanged at Rmb 45,200-45,320, the backwardation with the futures is at an equivalent of $35 per tonnes and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 1 to 7.20.

Precious metals in Shanghai are off around 0.2 percent, with the July gold price at Rmb 242.55 and silver at Rmb 3,654.

Equities – were generally quiet, albeit near highs with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.1 percent, the Dow was unchanged, while the S&P 500 was up 0.2 percent. In Asia this morning, the markets are upbeat with the Nikkei up 0.2 percent, the Hang Seng is up 1.8 percent, the CSI 300 is up 1.9 percent and the Kospi is up 0.8 percent.

Currencies – US data has been mixed and that is probably enough to make the markets feel confident that the Fed will not be in a hurry to raise interest rates – as a result the dollar may struggle on the upside. The dollar index was last at 95.17 -off Wednesday’s rebound high of 95.84. The euro is flat at 1.1141, sterling is firmer at 1.5667, the aussie is trying to rebound, last at 0.7919, as are the yen at 120.78 and the yuan at 6.196, while the rouble is flat at 49.75.

The economic agenda is quite busy – Chinese leading index climbed 1.1 percent, up from 0.5 percent previously. Later we get German final GDP and Ifo business climate data, UK public sector borrowing, Italian retail sales, US CPI and there are a host of central bankers speaking, most at the ECB forum on Central Banking, but Fed Chair Janet Yellen is speaking in the US at 6pm BST – see table below for more details.

The base metals for the most part are consolidating after the recent downward corrections, although copper and lead seem to be picking up more dip buying than the others. The corrections were overdue given the extent of most of the gains and the current fundamentals – on balance we would now expect the metals to enter a period of range-trading as the market adjusts to the recent price swings.

The precious metals are consolidating in mid-range, palladium is looking more vulnerable than the others, but with gold, silver and palladium, all recently breaking up through resistance levels it may be that these pullbacks are just a pause in the medium term up trends. A weaker dollar and concerns over Greece could prompt rallies.

 

Overnight Performance      
BST 06:09 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 6263 -2 0.0% 907
Al 1782 6.5 0.4% 554
Ni 12985 -45 -0.3% 750
Zn 2211 5 0.2% 432
Pb 1993 15.5 0.8% 369
Sn 15840 0 0.0% 0
Steel 395 0 0.0% Total
Average (BM ex-Steel) 0.2% 3,012
Gold 1207.7 1.7 0.1%
Silver 17.16 0.02 0.1%
Platinum 1155.1 3.1 0.3%
Palladium 778.5 -0.5 -0.1%
Average PM   0.1%

 

SHFE Prices 06:25 BST   Change % Change
Cu 45100 120 0.3%
AL 13240 15 0.1%
Zn 16630 50 0.3%
Pb 13375 175 1.3%
Ni 100000 -1470 -1.4%
Sn 117850 -490 -0.4%
Average change (base metals)     0.0%
Rebar 2155 -17 -0.8%
Au 242.55 -0.55 -0.2%
Ag 3654 -7 -0.2%

 

Economic Agenda
BST Country Data ACTUAL Expected Previous
12:00am US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
3:00am China CB Leading Index m/m 1.1% 0.5%
3:49am Japan Monetary Policy Statement
 7:00am Germany German Final GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3%
Tentative Japan BOJ Press Conference
9:00am EU ECB President Draghi Speaks
9:00am Germany German Ifo Business Climate 108.3 108.6
9:30am UK Public Sector Net Borrowing 7.8B 6.7B
10:00am Italy Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.2%
10:45am UK MPC Member Shafik Speaks
12:00pm UK BOE Gov Carney Speaks
1:30pm US CPI m/m 0.1% 0.2%
1:30pm US Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
2:30pm EU ECB President Draghi Speaks
2:30pm UK BOE Gov Carney Speaks
2:30pm Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
6:00pm US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

The post Gold price consolidates after recent downward correction appeared first on The Bullion Desk.

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