Technical analysis – Palladium weekly – Will it break long-term uptrend?

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Short Term: Medium Term: Long Term: Resistances: R1 767 7 WMA R2 764 November high R3 752 April low R4 746 January low Support: S1 729 October low S2 728 Lower BB S3 724 200 WMA S4 696 February 2014 low Stochastics: Legend: Fibo – Fibonacci retracement level MACD – Moving average convergence/divergence WMA – Weekly moving average BBs – Bollinger bands Technical Comment Analysis Re-Release of Weekly Technical Palladium has pulled back lower to retest the 200 WMA at $724, which has been providing support since November 2009.  With the stochastics, MACD and momentum all heading lower in their weak ranges, downside strength is being sustained. The BBs are diverging strongly so some consolidation may be required.  But the metal continues to track the lower BB at $728 – a sign of maintained downtrend strength.  Conclusion Palladium is nearing key support from the 200 WMA, which has continually supported the price. Avoiding a break below this level would show sustained long-term support, raising the potential for a pullback above the January low at $746. But the metal may have formed a large descending triangle above the 200 WMA. A sustained break below the 200 WMA would be a sign of a shift in long-term pressure to the downside. We would then look for a continued move lower to target the February 2014 low at $696 for confirmation of a break in the long-term trend and validation of the pattern. This would indicate a downside break of around $150, which gives a minimum downside price target of around $600. All trades or trading strategies mentioned in the report are hypothetical, for illustration only and do not constitute trading recommendations.

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