Base metals rebounded quite sharply on Tuesday, partly triggered by some profit taking after speculators accumulated substantial short positions across the complex earlier in July, as reflected by the steep deterioration in the net speculative positioning, especially with respect to copper, lead, and zinc. Tin continued to be the best performing metal (+4.3 percent), followed by zinc (+2.8 percent), nickel (+2.7 percent), copper (+2.1 percent), lead (+1.8 percent), and aluminium (+1.3 percent).
In contrast, the precious metals complex continued to trade sideways as market participants likely were not inclined to take additional speculative positions before the conclusion of the July FOMC meeting while the renewed appreciation of the dollar likely placed downward pressure on precious metals. As such, platinum fell 0.5 percent, palladium decreased 0.3 percent, silver was down 0.2 percent, but gold finished 0.1 percent higher.
This morning, base metals are slightly firmer amid healthy volumes, with copper, nickel, zinc, and lead up 0.5 percent, 0.4 percent, 0.3 percent, and 0.2 percent, respectively. However, tin is down 0.4 percent while aluminium is broadly unchanged. The precious metals complex also is trading higher, with palladium and platinum up 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, while silver is silver up 0.3 percent and gold is about flat.
In Shanghai, the July base metals contracts are stronger, with copper leading the rally (+2.6 percent). While zinc and lead are up 2.4 percent each, nickel and tin are up 2.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. In contrast, aluminium continues to remain unchanged. Meanwhile, spot copper in Changjiang is up 2.1 percent at Rmb 39,550-39,850, while the backwardation with the futures is at $113 per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is slightly down at 1 to 7.75, but still indicates that the arb window is open to most traders. The precious metals complex is marginally firmer, with silver up 0.6 percent and gold about flat.
Bonds – US government bonds declined slightly on Tuesday. Given that investors are placing a zero probability for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate in July, the rise in Treasury yields was unlikely due to FOMC meeting; rather, it reflected a return to a risk-on environment after Chinese equities stabilised, which prompted investors to pile back into riskier assets, such as equities and commodities. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year yield closed up 3.24 basis points (or 1.46 percent) at 2.2499 percent.
Stocks – European and US equities rebounded yesterday, reversing a five-day losing streak, after the central bank of China (PBOC) indicated that it would continue to inject liquidity in a bid to stabilise the Chinese equity market, which likely tempered investor fears. Accordingly, equities in the US witnessed a relief rally, with the Dow Jones up 1.09 percent and the S&P 500 up 1.24 percent, which was also supported by better-than-expected earnings reports from large companies including UPS and Ford and by market expectations that the Fed would not start firming its monetary policy at the 28-29 July FOMC meeting. Likewise, European equities pushed solidly higher amid encouraging earnings reports underpinning investor confidence, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing up 1.17 percent at 3,554. In Asia this morning, equities are mixed, reflecting a lack of conviction among investors due to the release of the US monetary policy statement later today. The Nikkei 225 is down 0.10 percent, partly reflecting a stronger yen, the Hang Seng is flat (up 0.05 percent), the CSI 300 is off 0.38 percent and the Kospi is trending higher (+0.57 percent).
Currencies – The dollar rose against most currencies yesterday, after reversing partially some losses on Monday. While the depreciation of the dollar on Monday was likely the result of carry trades unwinding due to the meltdown in Chinese equities, pushing key funding currencies such as the euro and the yen sharply up against the dollar, the recovery of the greenback yesterday likely reflected an increase in euro and yen carry trade positions amid a reduction in global risk aversion. The US dollar index (DXY) closed up 0.16 percent at 96.654, but was still down from 97.2440 on Monday.
The economic agenda will be dominated by the release of the July FOMC statement at 7:00pm. Economic data published earlier this morning indicated that Japan’s retail sales rose 0.9 percent in June from last year, slightly above market expectations of 0.8 percent, but sharply down from 3.0 percent in May. Economic data published later today will include GfK German consumer climate for July and US pending home sales for June.
Although the strengthening of prices across the base metals complex is encouraging, we hold the view that it is likely attributable to a short-term price movement fuelled by short-covering rather than a shift in sentiment reflecting a reassessment of the longer-term forward fundamentals. However, base metals could continue to push higher in the short-term due to further short-covering, especially if the dollar enters a consolidation phase.
Given the sentiment within the precious metals complex is strongly bearish, we believe that the short-term risks are slightly skewed to the upside as the Fed is unlikely to make significant changes in its July monetary policy statement in so far as information received since the June FOMC meeting is not likely to be sufficient to prompt FOMC members to change their assessment of appropriate monetary policy. As such, precious metals could witness a relief rally amid short-covering in the short-term.
| BST | 05:41 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 5335.5 | 27.5 | 0.5% | 3516 |
| Al | 1662.5 | -2 | -0.1% | 740 |
| Ni | 11330 | 50 | 0.4% | 538 |
| Zn | 1991 | 5 | 0.3% | 804 |
| Pb | 1739 | 4 | 0.2% | 188 |
| Sn | 16205 | -60 | -0.4% | 21 |
| Steel | 300 | 0 | 0.0% | Total |
| Average (BM ex-Steel) | 0.2% | 5,807 | ||
| Gold | 1096.6 | 1.5 | 0.1% | |
| Silver | 14.71 | 0.04 | 0.3% | |
| Platinum | 986.5 | 7.5 | 0.8% | |
| Palladium | 624.5 | 5.5 | 0.9% | |
| Average PM | 0.5% | |||
| SHFE Prices 5:41 BST | Change | % Change | |
| Cu | 38850 | 1000 | 2.6% |
| AL | 12330 | 85 | 0.7% |
| Zn | 15130 | 355 | 2.4% |
| Pb | 13095 | 305 | 2.4% |
| Ni | 83910 | 1790 | 2.2% |
| Sn | 111180 | 2290 | 2.1% |
| Average change (base metals) | 2.1% | ||
| Rebar | 2093 | 19 | 0.9% |
| Au | 221.9 | 0.15 | 0.1% |
| Ag | 3234 | 19 | 0.6% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | ACTUAL | Expected | Previous |
| 00:50am | Japan | Retail Sales y/y | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.0% |
| 07:00am | EU | GfK German Consumer Climate | 10.1 | 10.1 | |
| 3:00pm | US | Pending Home Sales m/m | 1.0% | 0.9% | |
| 7:00pm | US | FOMC Statement | |||
| 7:00pm | US | Federal Funds Rate | 0.25% | 0.25% | |
The post Base metals rebound on short-covering, precious metals await FOMC statement appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
No comments:
Post a Comment