Tuesday, 14 July 2015

Gold still ignored, price edges lower again

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The gold price slipped lower in Tuesday morning trading, with safe-haven assets out of favour for now.

Spot gold was last at $1,154.20/1,155.00 per ounce, down $2.70 on Monday’s close and confined to an intraday range of $4 so far.

Silver dropped 10 cents to $15.33/15.38 per ounce despite inflows of 38 tonnes into silver ETFs, Commerzbank noted. In the PGMs, platinum was down $1 at $1,026/1,031 and palladium was up $1 at $655/660.

“The complex continues to do very little, drifting ever lower in very thin, disinterested conditions,” Marex Spectron’s David Govett said in a note.

“Gold has proved that its ‘status’ as a safe haven is non-existent and the whites have shown that their industrial links are the main driver at the moment as they have tumbled on the back of Chinese and European woes,” he added.

The euro is marginally stronger this morning at 1.1031 against the dollar though much of the focus will be on whether Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can pass the four pieces of legislation required by the end of Wednesday to secure the third bailout package agreed with creditors earlier this week.

Gold is hamstrung by the lack of currency movements although bearish sentiment from oil prices after Iran agreed to curb its nuclear programme in return for an easing of sanctions may push some speculators away from the commodities space as will uncertainty should the Greek deal be ratified.

“We wait to see what gold’s reaction will be to a Greek deal should one be seen. With gold not getting much safe-haven buying in recent months, it follows that there should not be much negative reaction to a deal – but we would not bank on it,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said.

Yesterday, the latest CFTC statistics showed that the net long fund position in gold on Comex is at its most bearish this year. The NLFP fell 16,707 contracts or 25 percent to 50,448 contracts from 67,155 in the week ending July 7 – over the same period, gold prices declined 1.63 percent.

“There will be a short covering rally, however the overall direction to my mind remains downwards. As and when we see a rally, I would look to sell into it. Otherwise I am afraid I would continue to advocate remaining on the sidelines,” Marex Spectron’s Govett added.

“Interest in precious metals is at a low and the only moves we seem to see are in reaction to headlines and mainly dollar driven,” he added.

In data, the Chinese M2 money supply at 11.8 percent was better than expected while in Europe the German final CPI came in at -0.1 percent.

The German ZEW economic sentiment at 29.7 was below expectations, as was the overall eurozone number at 42.7. Industrial production at -0.4 percent also undershot.

This afternoon will see the release of US retail sales data for June, import prices and business inventories.

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

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