The metals closed mixed yesterday although more metals closed negatively than positively. Zinc, tin and aluminium closed off between 0.4 and 1 percent, lead and copper were little changed, with copper at $5,787.50 – but it seems to be struggling to keep hold of gains above $5,800 and nickel was the strongest of the bunch, rising 1.7 percent to $12,195.
Precious metals were split between silver that rebounded 0.6 percent to $15.66, while the rest closed lower with gold and platinum off 0.3 percent with gold at $1,165.70 after a low of $1,157.10, while palladium struggled to hold on to gains, it dropped 0.9 percent to $691.
This morning the base metals remain mixed but little changed with nickel giving back some of yesterday’s gains, it is off 0.6 percent at $12,125, while copper is at $5,792. Volume remains light with 2,148 lots traded and with the US closed today trading is likely to remain thin.
Precious metals are little changed with the PGMs up 0.2 percent, silver off 0.3 percent at $15.61 and gold up 0.1 percent at $5,792.
In Shanghai, the base metals are up an average of 0.5 percent led by a 1.1 percent rebound in tin; nickel and lead are up around 0.7 percent, zinc is up 0.2 percent and copper is up 0.4 percent at Rmb 42,370, while aluminium is down 0.3 percent at Rmb 12,670. Spot copper in Changjiang is up 0.1 percent, the backwardation with the futures is at an equivalent of $85 per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 1 to 7.36.
Precious metals in Shanghai are mixed with gold off 0.1 percent, but silver is up 0.5 percent.
Iron ore prices are falling sharply, last at around $55.65 as supply growth is evident with exports from Australia’s Port Hedland setting a record high of 38.4 million tonnes in June, up 14 percent compared with June 2014 and Brazil’s exports in June were up 8.5 percent compared with a year ago at 32.1 million tonnes. Despite this, Shanghai rebar prices were up 0.9 percent at Rmb 2,134.
Equities – were jittery yesterday over Greece with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.9 percent and the Dow closed down 0.2 percent on a mixed employment report. Asia is also mixed with the Nikkei, Kospi and Hang Seng little changed, China’s CSI dropped further in the morning session extending the drop to 27 percent from the peak, but it has since rebounded. So far the sell-off in China seems contained and we wait to see if the fallout from this is positive, or negative, for the metals – it could be that fear of the turbulence might push money back into other asset classes.
Currencies – the dollar index is holding in high ground at 96.10, the euro is consolidating at 1.1090, sterling is drifting, it is at 1.5610, the yen is choppy, last at 123.14, the aussie is particularly weak at 0.7581, as are most commodity currencies – which does not bode well for the metals; the rouble is at 55.15 and the yuan is trending sideways at 6.2055.
The economic agenda is focused on services PMI data out in China and across Europe, plus there is also EU retail sales – China’s PMI dropped to 51.8 from 53.5 – see table below for more details.
The base metals have been trying to get some lift off recent weakness but the upside going seems to be a struggle with the higher levels attracting selling. On balance, we would not be surprised to see the rebounds gain momentum, but there seems a lack of appetite to get involved with the uncertainty over Greece and with Chinese traders distracted by the wild swings in their stock markets as they correct. With the US out today, we may not see more direction until more in known about Greece next week.
The precious metals are all weak with gold and silver prices extending below recent months’ support levels, but they continue to find some dip buying, as have the PGMs, especially palladium. On balance we would expect trading to become choppier in this low ground – there is risk of fund short-covering should rebounds get going.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 05:55 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 5792 | 4.5 | 0.1% | 942 |
| Al | 1724.5 | 4.5 | 0.3% | 250 |
| Ni | 12125 | -70 | -0.6% | 559 |
| Zn | 2028 | 1 | 0.0% | 322 |
| Pb | 1780 | -3 | -0.2% | 74 |
| Sn | 14405 | -25 | -0.2% | 1 |
| Steel | 300 | 0 | 0.0% | Total |
| Average (BM ex-Steel) | -0.1% | 2,148 | ||
| Gold | 1166.9 | 1.2 | 0.1% | |
| Silver | 15.61 | -0.05 | -0.3% | |
| Platinum | 1082.1 | 2.1 | 0.2% | |
| Palladium | 692.1 | 1.1 | 0.2% | |
| Average PM | 0.0% | |||
| SHFE Prices 06:13 BST | Change | % Change | |
| Cu | 42370 | 180 | 0.4% |
| AL | 12670 | -40 | -0.3% |
| Zn | 15520 | 35 | 0.2% |
| Pb | 12920 | 90 | 0.7% |
| Ni | 89570 | 740 | 0.8% |
| Sn | 110590 | 1200 | 1.1% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0.5% | ||
| Rebar | 2134 | 20 | 0.9% |
| Au | 236.4 | -0.15 | -0.1% |
| Ag | 3452 | 16 | 0.5% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | ACTUAL | Expected | Previous |
| 2:45am | China | HSBC Services PMI | 51.8 | 53.8 | 53.5 |
| 8:15am | Spain | Spanish Services PMI | 58 | 58.4 | |
| 8:45am | Italy | Italian Services PMI | 52.9 | 52.5 | |
| 8:50am | France | French Final Services PMI | 54.1 | 54.1 | |
| 8:55am | Germany | German Final Services PMI | 54.2 | 54.2 | |
| 9:00am | EUR | Final Services PMI | 54.4 | 54.4 | |
| 9:30am | UK | Services PMI | 57.4 | 56.5 | |
| 10:00am | EU | Retail Sales m/m | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| All Day | US | Bank Holiday | |||
The post Metals on sidelines waiting for fog to clear from Greece and Chinese stocks appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
No comments:
Post a Comment