Monday, 3 August 2015

Gold makes quiet start, continued ETF outflows rule out rebound

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

The gold price made modest losses on Monday morning, driven lower by a marginally stronger dollar and continual outflows in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot gold was last at $1,093.40/1,094.20 per ounce, down $2.20 on the pre-weekend close and trading in an intraday range of just $5.

“The currencies were all very stable from the open today, trading at similar levels to last Friday’s close, which provided little influence for gold early on,” MKS’ Alex Thorndike said in a note.

Currencies remain flat – the dollar was last up 0.08 percent against the euro at 1.0970 against the euro, with the dollar index slightly higher at 97.36.

Equity markets were mixed. Key Asian indexes closed in negative territory – the Hang Seng down 0.9 percent, the Nikkei 0.18 percent and the Shanghai Composite 1.1 percent following disappointing Chinese manufacturing data and the continued lack of movement in the commodity markets.

European markets opened marginally higher but the slump in gold ETF holdings continues to weigh on any possible resurgence in the metal.

There were outflows in the funds tracked by FastMarkets for the 15th consecutive session, bringing holdings to 1,529 tonnes, the lowest total in more than six years.

“Once again, considerable outflows from the gold ETFs blocked any more significant or lasting increase in the price of gold,” Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch said.

And speculative investors also remain bearish on the metal’s prospects – in the week ending July 28, net short positions increased eight percent to a new record high of 14,600 contracts.

In the other precious metals, silver was last down four cents at $14.69/14.74 per ounce while platinum was down $3 at $976/981. Palladium meanwhile has made modest gains, climbing $6 to $611/616.

On the data front, the Caixin final manufacturing PMI for China at 47.8 was the lowest in two years and below expectations of 48.3 while the Japanese number at 51.2 was as expected but down from 51.4 last time. Over the weekend, China’s manufacturing PMI of 50 undershot.

In Europe, the Spanish final manufacturing PMI at 53.6 was just short of expectations but still in expansionary territory. The Italian number bettered expectations at 55.3 while the French and German numbers were as expected at 49.6 and 51.8 respectively. The aggregated eurozone number at 52.4 was also as expected.

US personal income and spending, construction spending and total vehicle sales are due later.

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

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