Friday 11 September 2015

Gold edges down; US data and FOMC decision awaited

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold continued to consolidate around $1,110 for a third day on Friday morning in London, with investors maintaining a watching brief ahead of US data today and the Fed’s decision on interest rates next week.

The spot gold price was last at $1,107/1,107.30 per ounce, down $4.90 on Thursday’s close. Trade has ranged from $1,105.6 to $1,113.0 so far.

“The yellow metal should continue to see support broadly around the $1,100-1,105 level leading into tonight’s US PPI data and more importantly, next week’s FOMC meeting,” MKS said.

“Resistance wise, $1,115 has capped the metal over the past couple of sessions, while above this $1,120-1,125 should prove more difficult to breach,” it added.

Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is expected to trigger a more definitive price movement, especially if it decides to raise the federal funds rate for the first time since 2006.

The Fed’s policy board have been locked into a public debate over the correct timing of raising interest rates, which have been near zero since December 2008. In April, the Fed removed all calendar references in its forward guidance, meaning the bank is now entirely data-dependent.

Various FOMC members have turned increasingly hawkish over the past few months, with Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen expressing a desire to raise rates sometime this year.

But inflation remains below the bank’s target of two percent – the CPI has been no higher than 0.4 percent for the past two years and dipped to -0.6 percent at the start of 2015.

US data releases today include the PPI, the core PPI, preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations as well as Federal budget balance.

Earlier, Chinese M2 money supply came in as expected at 13.3 percent, while new loans disappointed at 810 billion yuan. Over the weekend, industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales are scheduled for release and might give more clues on the state of the Chinese economy.

In the other precious metals, silver was little changed at $14.61/14.66 per ounce.

“A move towards $15 is still very much in play for the grey metal and we continue to see dips towards $14.60 and $14.50 well bought,” MKS said.

Platinum at $975/980 per ounce was down $6 and palladium fell $7 to $581/586.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), 1.42 million cars were sold in August, which down 3.4 percent year-on-year.

Unless sales recover considerably in the remainder of the year, 19.17 million cars in total will be sold this year – the first annual decline in more than a decade, Commerzbank noted.

(Editing by Mark Shaw)

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