The gold price will remain broadly flat in 2015 after a 28-percent fall last year, according to 35 bullion market analysts polled by the LBMA, but silver, platinum and palladium should rise as much as 5.6 percent.
In gold, Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley is the most bullish analyst, forecasting an average price $1,321 per ounce this year, while Adam Myers of Credit Agricole the most bearish with a prediction of $950.
Averaging out the 35 forecasts, gold will trade at a mean of $1,211 per ounce and in a range of $1,085-1,356 this year, the LBMA said in its Forecast 2015 report.
“Factors which are likely to restrain gold prices in 2015 include[e] the possible strengthening in the US dollar, interest rate hikes by the Fed in the second half of 2015, QE programmes in Europe and a weak oil price reducing gold’s attraction as a hedge against inflation,” it said
Still, strong retail demand from China and India should offer some support.
Spot gold was last down $5 on Tuesday’s close at $1,287.80/1,288.60 per ounce and confined to an intraday range of around $11.
The forecasters are more optimistic on silver’s prospects, forecasting an average of $16.76 per ounce and a range of $13.91- 19.36.
Norman is again the most bullish, forecasting an average of $18.56 for the year, while Robin Bhar of Société Générale was the most bearish $13.
“Negative price factors include expected strengthening of the dollar, disinflation as well as slow growth from China and the eurozone,” the LBMA noted. “But some positive factors which could lend support to prices include an expected additional investment in solar power, continued support of silver ETFs and expectations that retail investors may take advantage of attractive prices.”
The LBMA members are also generally more bullish on the prospects of the PGMs, with platinum forecast at $1,294 per ounce on average in 2015 – an increase of 5.6 percent on last year.
Bart Melek of TD Securities was the most bullish at $1,434, while INTL FCStone’s Glyn Stevens was the most bearish at $1,098.
“Positive influences… include a supply deficit, despite expected improvement in South African production, and rising costs might also push prices higher along with strong demand from China and industrial investors,” the LBMA said. “On the negative side is the weak outlook for gold prices and macro-economic factors which are likely to act as a restraint on prices.”
The forecasters see palladium averaging $838.40 per ounce, up 5.3 percent from where it started the year and 4.4 percent above its average price in 2014.
Rene Hochreiter of Sieberana Research was the most bullish with a forecast of $950, while INTL FCStone’s Glyn Stevens was the most bearish with a forecast of $738.
“The palladium price is expected to benefit from a supply deficit as well as improving industrial demand and strong car sales in North America and China,” the LBMA noted.
MKS’ Ferderic Panizzutti took the first prize for his gold forecast of $1,262 in 2014 and FastMarkets analyst William Adams a close joint-second with $1,260. Suki Cooper of Barclays and Rhona O’Connell of Thomson Reuters came first in the silver forecast, predicting a 2014 average of $19.00 against the final figure of $19.08 per ounce.
The platinum forecast was won by Philip Klapwijk of Precious Metals Insights at $1,369 against the final 2014 average of $1,385 per ounce. In palladium, Eddie Nagao of Sumitomo Corp came first with a forecast of $805 against the 2014 average of $802.95 per ounce.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)
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