Precious metals were mixed yesterday with silver and palladium off an average of one percent, platinum was up 0.5 percent and the gold price was up 0.1 percent at $1,172.80 – with platinum’s discount to the gold price at $72.8.
The base metal put in a quiet day’s trading on Monday with average gains of one percent at the day’s highs, losses of 0.5 percent at the day’s lows and they closed up an average of 0.5 percent. Nickel was the main performer rising 2.2 percent to $13,390, tin was up 0.5 percent, aluminium was off 0.1 percent, while the rest up between 0.1 to 0.3 percent, with copper at $5,959.
This morning the base metals complex is up an average of 0.2 percent, tin is unchanged, while the rest are up between 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent, with copper up 0.3 percent at $5,978. Volume remains light with 1,679 lots, with copper volume only just beating nickel volume – see table below for more details. So nickel is on the up and is doing so on relatively high volume.
Precious metals are firmer by an average of 0.6 percent as the dollar has slipped and as some emerging market currencies are on the slide. Silver and platinum are up 0.8 percent, palladium is up 0.7 percent, while the gold price is up 0.3 percent at $1,176.70.
In Shanghai, the base metals are up by an average of 0.5 percent with aluminium the only one in negative territory, it is off 0.2 percent, nickel leads the advance with a 1.6 percent gain to Rmb 100,990, while the rest are up between 0.3 and 0.6 percent with copper up 0.4 percent at Rmb 43,250.
Spot copper in Changjiang is up 0.1 percent at Rmb 43,400-43,500, the spread with the August contract is at $40 per tonnes backwardation and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is at 1 to 7.25 for the August date, but that runs up to 1 to 7.28 for the June contract.
Precious metals in Shanghai are firmer with the December gold price up 0.5 percent and silver up 0.1 percent.
Equities – were weaker yesterday with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 1.2 percent, not helped by a stronger euro and concerns over Greece and the Dow closed off 0.5 percent. The weaker tone has flowed through to Asia were the firmer yen has the Nikkei off 0.8 percent, the Hang Seng is off 1.1 percent, the CSI is off 1.4 percent and the Kospi is off 0.1 percent. Also Indonesia is in the spotlight with its currency at levels not seen since the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the Jakarta JCI off 3.1 percent. This raises questions as to whether the prospects for higher interest rates, which the bond market weakness in recent weeks warns, is starting to unsettle emerging market economies again?
Currencies – the dollar index is easier at 95.00, down from a late May peak of 97.78, the euro is firm at 1.1318, sterling is firm at 1.5360, the yen is last at 124.36, the aussie is at 0.7692, the rouble is at 55.46 and the yuan is at 6.2055. The rupee is in low ground at 63.97, the real is at 3.1085 and the rand is at 12.4783.
Data out already shows disappointing UK retail sales data, Japan’s M2 money supply increased, while China’s CPI and PPI remain low with CPI rising 1.2 percent, down from 1.5 percent and PPI falling 4.6 percent. Later we get Japanese consumer confidence, machine tool orders, France’s budget balance, UK trade balance, EU revised GDP and US data included: the NFIB small business index, Jolts job openings and wholesale inventories – see table below.
The base metals for the most part are consolidating as the dips of late have attracted some buying – the weaker dollar is also lending support, but we are not overly bullish given the economic backdrop. Nickel is in its own boat, with prices rebounding on both the LME and on the SHFE and that seems to be on the back of the tightness in the SHFE’s July contract and the rise in warrant cancellations on the LME. We wait to see what light today’s LME commitment of traders report throws on last week’s activity.
Precious metals sold off on Friday, but they have not suffered follow through selling. With the dollar now slipping again and with some of the other markets looking a bit toppy, it may be that the gold price looks relatively cheap as a safe-haven asset class should investors feel the need for a haven.
| Overnight Performance | ||||
| BST | 05:54 | +/- | +/- % | Lots |
| Cu | 5978 | 19 | 0.3% | 696 |
| Al | 1754.5 | 6.5 | 0.4% | 180 |
| Ni | 13420 | 30 | 0.2% | 621 |
| Zn | 2147.5 | 5.5 | 0.3% | 153 |
| Pb | 1918 | 6 | 0.3% | 27 |
| Sn | 15375 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Steel | 300 | 0 | 0.0% | Total |
| Average (BM ex-Steel) | 0.2% | 1,679 | ||
| Gold | 1176.7 | 3.9 | 0.3% | |
| Silver | 16.06 | 0.12 | 0.8% | |
| Platinum | 1108.8 | 8.8 | 0.8% | |
| Palladium | 747 | 5 | 0.7% | |
| Average PM | 0.6% | |||
| SHFE Prices 05:55 BST | Change | % Change | |
| Cu | 43250 | 170 | 0.4% |
| AL | 12950 | -25 | -0.2% |
| Zn | 16320 | 45 | 0.3% |
| Pb | 13160 | 65 | 0.5% |
| Ni | 100990 | 1590 | 1.6% |
| Sn | 114990 | 690 | 0.6% |
| Average change (base metals) | 0.5% | ||
| Rebar | 2348 | 15 | 0.6% |
| Au | 238.2 | 1.2 | 0.5% |
| Ag | 3562 | 2 | 0.1% |
| Economic Agenda | |||||
| BST | Country | Data | ACTUAL | Expected | Previous |
| 12:01am | UK | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | 0.0% | -2.4% | |
| 12:50am | Japan | M2 Money Stock y/y | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 2:30am | China | CPI y/y | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| 2:30am | China | PPI y/y | -4.6% | -4.5% | -4.6% |
| 6:00am | Japan | Consumer Confidence | 41.9 | 41.5 | |
| 7:00am | Japan | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | 10.5% | ||
| 7:45am | France | French Gov Budget Balance | -26.3B | ||
| 9:30am | UK | Trade Balance | -10.0B | -10.1B | |
| 10:00am | EU | Revised GDP q/q | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2:00pm | US | NFIB Small Business Index | 97.1 | 96.9 | |
| 3:00pm | US | JOLTS Job Openings | 5.03M | 4.99M | |
| 3:00pm | US | Wholesale Inventories m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
The post Gold price rebounds in absence of follow through selling appeared first on The Bullion Desk.
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