Wednesday, 19 August 2015

Is gold’s steadiness now a warning about other markets?

Otmane El Rhazi from The Bullion Desk.

Gold bullion closed little changed at $1,117.50, platinum was off 0.3 percent, while silver and palladium were down close to three percent. The base metals sold off again yesterday with copper and aluminium setting fresh lows, with copper breaking below $5,000 to set a low at $4,983 and aluminium reaching $1,549.50. On average, the complex was off 2.1 percent.

This morning the base metals lie between being little changed or higher, with nickel up 0.7 percent at $10,425, aluminium is up 0.3 percent and zinc is up 0.2 percent, while the rest are little changed with copper at $5,014.50, Volume has picked-up to 4,360 lots – see table below.

Precious metals this morning sees gold bullion prices little changed at $1,118, silver up 0.1 percent, while the PGMs are weaker by an average of around 0.7 percent.

In Shanghai, the base metals are off across the board with average losses of one percent, led by a 1.5 percent drop in nickel, copper is off 1.2 percent at Rmb 38,510, zinc is off 1.1 percent, lead is off 0.9 percent, aluminium is down 0.8 percent and tin is off 0.3 percent. Spot copper is down 1.2 percent, the backwardation with the October contract is at around an equivalent of $45 per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arb ratio is wider at 7.89 for nearby months, which should lend some support LME prices.

In other metals prices in Shanghai, gold is off 0.1 percent, silver is down 1.8 percent, steel rebar is down 1.1 percent and iron ore prices are steady at $56.90.

Equities were slightly weaker yesterday with the Euro Stoxx 50 off 0.1 percent and the Dow closed down 0.2 percent. Asia has generally been weak with the Nikkei down 1.5 percent, the Hang Seng is off 1.1 percent, China’s CSI initially saw follow through weakness after yesterday’s 6 percent drop, but later recovered strongly and the Kospi is down 0.9 percent.

Currencies – the dollar is treading water with the dollar index at 96.80, as are the euro at 1.1060, the aussie at 0.7340 and the yen at 124.27, sterling is firm at 1.5672, the rouble is weak at 65.72 and the yuan is flat at 6.4394. The emerging market currencies are starting to consolidate, but in low ground after their post-Chinese devaluation weakness.

Economic data already out shows Japan’s trade deficit widened as exports slowed, while its all industries activity index climbed 0.3 percent. Later we get the EU current account, US CPI and crude oil inventories and then at 7:00pm BST we get the FOMC Meeting minutes (N.B. the minutes were for a meeting held before China’s devaluation).

The downward trends continue for most of the base metals, the exceptions are tin that is trying to work higher and lead that is once again just managing to stay flat. For now, the downward momentum looks set to push prices lower, but there remains increased risk of short-covering rallies along the way.

Gold bullion prices are managing to hold up, as are platinum prices, while silver and palladium are struggling. Gold seems to be attracting safe-haven buying as concerns about emerging market currencies and broader markets seem to be on the rise.

 

Overnight Performance      
BST 06:50:06 +/- +/- % Lots
Cu 5014.5 -5.5 -0.1% 2510
Al 1555 4 0.3% 392
Ni 10425 75 0.7% 474
Zn 1770 3.5 0.2% 864
Pb 1685 0.5 0.0% 115
Sn 15155 -5 0.0% 5
Steel 300 0 0.0%  Total 
Average (BM ex-Steel) 0.2% 4360
Gold 1118 0.5 0.0%
Silver 14.87 0.02 0.1%
Platinum 986.8 -5.2 -0.5%
Palladium 590.2 -4.8 -0.8%
Average PM   -0.3%

 

SHFE Prices 6:50 BST   Change % Change
Cu 38510 -460 -1.2%
AL 11920 -100 -0.8%
Zn 14630 -160 -1.1%
Pb 13200 -115 -0.9%
Ni 81250 -1220 -1.5%
Sn 106890 -350 -0.3%
Average change (base metals) 236.5   -1.0%
Rebar 2035 -23 -1.1%
Au 232.45 -0.3 -0.1%
Ag 3396 -63 -1.8%

 

Economic Agenda
BST Country Data ACTUAL Expected Previous
12:50am Japan Trade Balance -0.37T -0.16T -0.28T
5:30am Japan All Industries Activity m/m 0.3% 0.4% -0.5%
 9:00am EU Current Account 19.2B 18.0B
1:30pm US CPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
1:30pm US Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
3:30pm US Crude Oil Inventories -0.6M -1.7M
7:00pm US FOMC Meeting Minutes

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